The pandemic disrupted many industries, with the travel industry being one of the hardest hit. Along with a significant decrease in leisure travel, business travel practically halted.

The combination of restrictions and added cost of traveling (tests, quarantine and related fees, etc.) plus the newfound ease of virtual communication made traveling for business a very undesirable concept.

However, as we begin to move toward the end of the pandemic, when will business travel return? And how will business travel have changed from pre-pandemic times?

While many companies will have sworn off business travel for good, others will be looking to get back to domestic and international travel for meetings, trade shows, industry events, and the like.

In this blog, we discuss when a return to business travel is likely. We also cover some reasons for and against traveling for business and what business travel will look like post-pandemic.

The Business Travel Industry

Airlines will be working hard to get business travelers back as this group contributes to the majority of their profits. While passengers traveling for business only account for 10 - 20% of all passengers, they contribute to over 60% of airline profits.

Certain hotels will be eager to see business travel return too. Hotels with large convention centers and those located in the center of large business hubs, such as New York and London, are also highly reliant on business travelers.

These industries may begin offering perks to entice business travelers back once things return to normal. However, some think that these businesses will have to increase prices to make up for pandemic losses, which will make business travel even less desirable.

Airlines want business travelers to return quickly as this group contributes to the majority of their profits.

When Will Business Travel Return?

Having been heavily disrupted by the pandemic, the business travel sector will take a long time to return to pre-pandemic levels. Due to newfound comfortability with digital communication methods for business, many predict that business travel will never return to pre-Covid levels.

The last big disruptor of the travel industry was the 2008 recession. Once the economy began to stabilize, it took five years for business travel to return to pre-recession levels.

Modeling the recovery of the business travel sector using the recession’s timeline suggests that business travel would not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2026 or 2027.

As mentioned, that level may never be reached again due to the pandemic showing that business can be conducted without as much travel.

It’s likely that we’ll see a return to business travel in these phases:

Close domestic travel that can be done via car
Domestic travel further afield by train or plane
International travel

Domestic Business Travel

Domestic business travel will return before international business travel does. Domestic travel will begin to increase around the time that vaccine rollout is almost complete, and restrictions are almost completely eased.

A lot of domestic travel will be replaced permanently with digital meetings. This is especially true of trips that will cost companies a lot. For example, a flight across the country with a hotel stay.

This return to business travel is expected to begin in the summer or fall of 2021. Of course, that’s dependent on the pandemic not worsening and vaccine rollout being successful.

International Business Travel

The return of international business travel will depend in part on restrictions in each country. For example, companies will not be sending employees on trips to countries that continue to require quarantine on arrival.

An issue with international travel is the fast-changing policies surrounding visitors. Travel requirements and restrictions get added in many countries with less than a week's notice.

This fact may result in companies booking a business trip to a country that suddenly requires travelers to quarantine on arrival. This will make conducting in-person business impossible, resulting in no return on investment.

Again, the realization that a lot of international meetings can be conducted virtually and the cost savings that come with that will decrease the amount of international business travel.

It’s unlikely that there will be much of an increase in international business travel until at least 2022.

Trade Shows, Conferences, and Events

In-person trade shows, conferences, and other similar large industry events are likely to be held off the longest.

This is because the organizations hosting these events will not want to begin planning until they know that attendees won't have safety concerns. Organizers will also want to wait for a time when there is a very small chance of cancellation.

The fact that these events host hundreds or thousands of attendees will be a concern too. Many will want to wait until it’s certain that herd immunity has been achieved and that international guests are immunized.

Domestic business travel will return first. International business travel won’t return until at least 2022.

Industry and Sector Differences

The industry and sector businesses are in will play a role too. Those hardest hit by the pandemic will likely have less overall budget, meaning less budget for traveling. Sales-focused organizations will probably be the first to return to business travel.

The speed at which companies will return to business travel will depend on how each company operates too. Those that close a lot of deals at trade shows will be wanting to get back to these types of events first. Another company may have five individual clients that will bring a large percentage of business, making a trip to see them a priority.

Some may see the added value of trade shows more worth traveling for as opposed to individual meetings. At shows and industry events, you can meet current and prospective clients and suppliers, learn about industry trends, network, and more. This one-time trip can be highly valuable making the potential risk and higher cost of traveling worth it.

Internal Meetings

Travel for internal meetings, for example, between an east coast and a west coast office/branch, will decrease drastically.

There is now much less justification for internal in-person meetings. This is especially the case if the company is sticking with a full or part-time remote work model.

However, with more remote positions, employees will not be interacting every day face-to-face or building relationships. Due to this, more travel could occur to meet up for team-building events and business retreats.

How Will Business Travel Change Post-Pandemic?

Having discussed the question “when will business travel return?”, let’s now look at some of the reasons for a decreased demand for business travel in general, and how business travel will change in the years to come.

Reasons for a Decrease in Business Travel

The main reasons for the current drop in business travel are related to the pandemic, such as safety concerns and travel restrictions.

However, the following are some other reasons why we will see a continued change to business travel that may result in it not ever returning to pre-pandemic levels.

The Ease of Digital Communication

When the pandemic first hit, there had to be a quick shift from in-person meetings and events to digital alternatives.

The move to remote work will have shown that a lot of business travel is not necessary. More people are now comfortable with virtual meetings and have seen that they can still achieve the goals of the meeting.

While many discovered virtual meetings were not that difficult to host, digital meetings are lacking in certain elements compared to in-person meetings. This could be a reason why travel for certain in person meetings will carry on.

Budget Concerns

A vast majority of companies will be decreasing their budgets over the next few years. This will happen for a range of reasons relating to the pandemic. These reasons include drops in revenue, more caution overspending, and a possible recession.

Another issue is that the cost of travel will increase as airlines and hotels try to make up for pandemic losses.

This combination of smaller business travel budgets and higher travel expenses will cut the amount of business travel conducted quite significantly for many companies.

Increased Environmental Concern

It’s not just the pandemic affecting travel, but environmental concerns too. This trend will carry on no matter how the industry recovers from the pandemic.

More and more companies are looking for ways to be more eco-friendly. Cutting down on business travel is one way to do so.

These environmental concerns will especially be a consideration for companies with values around the environment and those with environmental targets. For these companies, flying out for a quick meeting won’t be seen as worth it in terms of sustainability.

The ease of virtual communication will decrease demand for business travel significantly.

Why Business Travel Still Has a Place in the Post-Pandemic World

When discussing when business travel will return, we must consider the reasons why people will be looking to initiate the return. There are many reasons why companies will still invest in business travel instead of it being completely replaced by virtual alternatives.

The following are some of the main reasons why business travel will have a place in the post-pandemic world.

Zoom Fatigue and the Need for In-Person Communication

The use of video calls during the pandemic has been successful as a communication method for meetings, pitches, and other business purposes. However, face-to-face meetings still have a place.

While many have found that virtual communication works for internal teams, what works internally will not necessarily work for external parties like clients, prospects, and suppliers.

Human interaction is a major part of building trust and relationships, which contributes significantly to successfully closing deals. In-person meetings allow for more personability. It’s a lot easier to converse and answer questions. In-person meetings also facilitate added-value elements, such as offering product demos.

Some will not want to forgo the experience and benefits that come from in-person meetings once it’s possible to conduct them again. Businesses must consider what clients want too. If your clients want to meet in person, there really isn’t a choice.

After more than a year of virtual meetings, many are experiencing “Zoom fatigue” as well, and want some return to face-to-face contact due to that.

A desire for in-person meetings and “Zoom fatigue” will contribute to a return to business travel.

Competitor Actions

When thinking about when to return to business travel, companies must be wary of what their competitors are doing in terms of traveling for business, such as for meetings.

You and your client/prospect may be happy with video calls. However, they may also be open to face-to-face meetings. If a competitor takes up that opportunity, they may build a relationship more quickly, making it more likely that your competitor will close the sale.

Once competitors begin traveling for meetings and pitches, it may be time for your company to do so as well to compete successfully.

Business Travel Incentives

As discussed earlier, while many think travel costs will increase, airlines and other travel operators may instead cut rates or offer incentives to get customers to return. This is especially true of offers targeted at business travelers who make up such a large part of airline profits.

Airlines and others in the business travel sector want to see their customers return. They know that businesses will have budget concerns and have found alternatives to business travel. Therefore, incentives and marketing will be needed to get their client base back and traveling frequently.

If incentives are offered that allow business travel to result in high ROI, then it is highly likely that companies will jump on these offers and business travel will return quicker than expected.

In Conclusion

There is no certain answer to the question “when will business travel return?” However, based on estimates of the pandemic being under control in the next three to six months, it can be assumed that business travel will pick up again by the fall, at least domestically.

Changes to the level of business travel and the reasons for traveling for business are yet to be known. It is estimated that due to increased comfortability with virtual communication and continued technological advances, the level of business travel will never return to pre-pandemic levels.

Just how many people will continue to travel for business and how the travel industry will make up for a potential loss of their most profitable customer segment is still uncertain. Only time will tell what business travel post-pandemic will look like.

When Will Business Travel Return and How Will it Change?